Possible scenario
Baghdad Cooperates Quietly
27% Chance
Iraq tries to protect its own crude exports and dollar access by cooperating with US investigators. Baghdad is likely to offer audits, customs data, and tighter port controls while denying official involvement in Iranian oil laundering.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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