Possible scenario
Higher-for-longer repricing
45% Chance
The most likely path is that investors extend the higher-for-longer rates trade after the 87-basis-point quarterly jump. Stubborn inflation, the CBO deficit estimate, and Fed projections for additional 2026 hikes keep term premiums elevated.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.7%
- Technology -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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