Possible scenario
Housing Demand Cracks
20% Chance
Another likely outcome is that the rate move quickly shows up in mortgage applications, builder traffic, and home-search activity. The market reaction would be more negative for housing-related equities than for the broader economy because the stress is concentrated in transaction volumes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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