Possible scenario
Higher Longer Rates
45% Chance
The most likely path is that investors treat the 7.63% mortgage-rate print as confirmation that long-term borrowing costs remain stuck near cycle highs. Housing activity slows further, but the broader market reaction is contained because the move extends an already visible trend.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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