Possible scenario
Bond Rally Relief
25% Chance
A less severe but plausible path is that the mortgage-rate spike proves to be a near-term peak as investors buy Treasuries on softer economic data or dovish Fed commentary. Housing-sensitive equities rebound because affordability pressure eases at the margin.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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