Possible scenario
UN-Backed Freeze
42% Chance
The 60-nation front, including China and major EU and Gulf states, makes unilateral tolls politically costly for both Tehran and Washington. The most likely outcome is a diplomatic freeze in which Iran and the U.S. avoid formal implementation while maritime-law language is clarified through the IMO or UN channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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