Possible scenario
Iran Seeks Compromise
25% Chance
Iran does not fully abandon the toll concept but tries to convert it into a bargaining tool over sanctions, maritime security, and recognition of its role in the Gulf. This path keeps risk premia alive without immediately closing or militarizing the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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