Possible scenario
Mediation Restarts Talks
35% Chance
Qatar, with support from Oman and European intermediaries, manages to convert the deadlock into another round of indirect talks. Both Washington and Tehran preserve negotiating leverage while avoiding immediate escalation around Iran’s nuclear sites and Gulf shipping lanes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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