Possible scenario
Limited Military Exchange
22% Chance
The deadlock leads one side to test red lines through a calibrated strike, while both still try to avoid a full regional war. This would be a material geopolitical escalation and would likely lift oil, volatility, defense names, and the dollar over the next one to two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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