Possible scenario
Deadlock Stays Contained
30% Chance
The most likely non-escalatory path is continued stalemate with neither side willing to concede on enrichment, sanctions sequencing, or guarantees. The conflict remains managed through backchannels, but markets keep a modest risk premium in oil and volatility.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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