Possible scenario
Chinese Trade Retaliation
20% Chance
China could answer the kill-switch push by widening its existing retaliation playbook beyond EU brandy. The most plausible targets are politically salient French and German exports rather than broad measures that would hurt Chinese consumers and manufacturers.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.6%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.7%
- Technology -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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