Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalates
18% Chance
A new attack causes material damage to a commercial vessel or prompts a temporary halt in private transits. The Saudi-Oman pipeline announcement then becomes a symbol of future resilience, but it cannot offset the immediate shock to seaborne oil flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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