Possible scenario
Harassment Persists
30% Chance
Iran-linked forces continue low-level pressure in and around Hormuz, but avoid actions that would trigger a direct U.S. or Gulf military response. The Saudi-Oman pipeline is treated as strategically useful, yet irrelevant for immediate physical flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Services -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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