Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
15% Chance
A successful Iranian or proxy attack prompts the United States, Israel, or both to strike IRGC-linked targets in Iran, Syria, Iraq, or Yemen. This path is less likely than deterrence or a limited incident, but the downside risk is materially larger.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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