Possible scenario
Limited Iranian Strike
30% Chance
Iran or an aligned militia carries out a limited strike against US-linked assets in the UAE, Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, or the Red Sea corridor. Tehran may choose a deniable or calibrated attack to demonstrate resolve without inviting a full US campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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