Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is heightened protection at US embassies, bases, airports, and energy facilities without a successful Iranian strike. Tehran may keep threats alive to deter further US-Israeli action, while avoiding a direct attack that could trigger retaliation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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