Possible scenario
October Skip, December Live
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Fed leaves rates unchanged in October after softer core PCE and John Williams' pushback on an immediate hike. Policymakers keep December in play, preserving a data-dependent tightening bias if inflation firms again.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.