Possible scenario
Inflation Reheats
20% Chance
A hotter CPI, firm wage growth, or renewed rise in inflation expectations could reverse the market's dovish reaction to the PCE undershoot. In that case, Goldman’s December call would look too late, and Fed officials could revive the possibility of an October or more hawkish December move.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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