Possible scenario
Disinflation Extends Pause
25% Chance
A continued run of benign inflation and cooler labor-market data pushes investors to doubt whether the Fed will hike at all in 2026. Goldman and other dealers may move from a delayed-hike call to a no-hike baseline if core services inflation keeps easing.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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