Possible scenario
Nationwide Escalation Returns
20% Chance
Gathering bans fail to stop copycat violence, with new attacks on town halls, transport assets, and shopping districts. The scenario remains below a systemic financial crisis, but risk aversion rises as investors reassess French consumer activity and insurance losses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.8%
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.