Possible scenario
Legal Backlash Builds
25% Chance
Civil-liberties groups, left-wing parties, and some municipal leaders challenge the gathering bans as disproportionate. The immediate security situation may improve, but the political fight shifts to courts and parliament.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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