Possible scenario
Crackdown Restores Order
45% Chance
Macron's ban on gatherings, heavy police deployments, and rapid prosecutions reduce the scale of unrest over the next several nights. The government absorbs criticism over civil liberties but markets treat the riots as a contained domestic security event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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