Possible scenario
Wider Diplomatic Escalation
15% Chance
The permit revocations become part of a broader diplomatic confrontation over security responsibilities and treatment of UAE nationals and carriers in Israel. The Abraham Accords remain formally intact, but tourism, business delegations, and aviation cooperation face a visible setback.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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