Possible scenario
Short Security Freeze
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a short suspension framed as an emergency security review rather than a rupture of the Abraham Accords. Abu Dhabi uses the permit revocations to force new cockpit-access, passenger-screening, and police-coordination rules before allowing limited Israeli operations to resume.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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