Possible scenario
Israeli inquiry escalates
18% Chance
The UAE angle strengthens domestic demands in Israel for a fuller Oct. 7 accountability process. Netanyahu continues to deny a cover-up, but opposition parties and security veterans press for testimony and records.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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