Possible scenario
Russian Aid Confirmed
27% Chance
Additional imagery, signals intelligence, or allied reporting establishes that Russia helped Iran restore or upgrade missile and air-defense capabilities. This would harden U.S. and European policy toward both Moscow and Tehran, but the first reaction would likely be sanctions and military alerts rather than open conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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