Possible scenario
Israel Escalates Again
20% Chance
Israel concludes that Russian support is materially improving Iran's missile resilience and carries out another limited strike on Iranian military infrastructure. This is the clearest market-stress path because it raises oil-supply risk and the probability of Iranian or proxy retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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