Possible scenario
Denial Mostly Holds
38% Chance
The White House position survives initial scrutiny: satellite imagery confirms damage at Iranian facilities, but not a fresh transfer of Russian missile systems. Washington keeps pressure on Tehran and Moscow while avoiding a major escalation that could derail Iran diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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