Possible scenario
Yield Shock Extends
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is another leg of de-risking as investors price a higher probability of a Fed hike and longer-duration yields remain above 5.3%. Technology, finance, cyclicals, and commodity-linked shares remain under pressure while the dollar benefits from defensive flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.