Possible scenario
Policy Reassurance Bounce
25% Chance
Officials in the US or China provide enough reassurance to interrupt the selloff. The rebound is plausible because the market move has been rapid, positioning is stretched, and even modest policy language could trigger short-covering.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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