Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the threat cycle remains coercive rather than kinetic. Qatar, Oman, and European intermediaries push both sides to avoid a step that could expose U.S. bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, the UAE, and Kuwait.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.