Possible scenario
Temporary Deal Revived
30% Chance
Oman and Qatar revive a short reopening plan that gives each side enough ambiguity to claim it has not backed down. The most likely version is a temporary corridor arrangement rather than a comprehensive U.S.-Iran settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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