Possible scenario
Naval Escalation Expands
25% Chance
The Trump administration shifts from diplomacy toward armed maritime protection, increasing the risk of direct clashes with Iranian forces. This scenario keeps the Strait partly usable but raises the probability of a military incident.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -4.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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