Possible scenario
Blockade Stalemate Persists
35% Chance
Iran maintains the Hormuz closure while demanding U.S. concessions, and Washington refuses to soften its position. Oil markets price continuing supply disruption, but both sides avoid immediate direct attacks beyond harassment and inspections.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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