Possible scenario
Accountability Backlash
18% Chance
Talarico's campaign and legal advisers pursue retractions or formal complaints over the mental-facility allegation. The episode shifts from a health-rumor story into a media-accountability and defamation dispute that could damage Paxton-aligned messengers.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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