Possible scenario
Rift Stays Contained
38% Chance
Trump's call to replace Zelensky becomes a sharp political warning rather than an immediate policy rupture. Kyiv publicly rejects foreign interference while U.S. officials use private channels to press limits on attacks against Russian refining assets.
Initial impacts
- US dollar Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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