Possible scenario
Kyiv Politics Reopens
18% Chance
Trump's demand accelerates Ukraine's internal debate over wartime legitimacy, elections, and a broader unity government. Zelensky is unlikely to be removed quickly, but Kyiv may offer a political roadmap to preserve U.S. support.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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