Possible scenario
Aid Pressure Escalates
27% Chance
The White House turns the replacement demand into leverage over Kyiv's military strategy. A temporary restriction on intelligence, targeting support, or long-range munitions becomes the key market risk, with NATO governments trying to prevent a visible rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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