Possible scenario
Escorted Flow Holds
42% Chance
U.S. naval escorts and surveillance assets keep the oil movement operating despite Iranian claims of control. Tehran continues threats and information operations, but avoids a direct interdiction that would invite a larger U.S. response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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