Possible scenario
Direct Clash Disrupts
20% Chance
A U.S.-linked tanker or escort ship is hit or directly targeted, triggering a U.S. military response against IRGC assets. Hormuz remains technically open, but the immediate disruption to shipping, insurance, and crude pricing is significant.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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