Possible scenario
Talks Stall
20% Chance
The administration may keep the idea under discussion without changing sanctions, especially if lawyers and lawmakers warn that relief would undercut Iran and Russia policy. Freight rates would remain elevated, with continued strain on Asian crude buyers and US export flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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