Possible scenario
Broad Sanctions Pause
25% Chance
Washington could decide that tanker scarcity has become a larger near-term inflation and energy-security risk than sanctions leakage. A broader temporary suspension would meaningfully increase available hulls, but it would also invite criticism that the US is weakening pressure on Tehran and Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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