Possible scenario
Trump Pressures Kyiv
25% Chance
Trump uses the diesel-price fight to renew pressure on Zelensky to halt strikes on Russian refineries. The policy channel matters because it could directly affect Russian fuel supply, U.S. diesel imports, and the tone of U.S. military support for Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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