Possible scenario
Refinery War Intensifies
20% Chance
Zelensky’s rejection of Trump’s argument is followed by continued or expanded Ukrainian strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure. Russia responds by tightening export restrictions, keeping diesel and crude-product markets volatile.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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