Possible scenario
Consumer Slowdown Broadens
40% Chance
The Goldman Sachs finding becomes another data point in a longer deterioration in household cash flow, now extending beyond lower-income borrowers. Investors treat the report as evidence that high housing costs, elevated rates, and credit-card balances are beginning to constrain discretionary spending.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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