Possible scenario
Conditional Approvals Hold
40% Chance
Washington allows Samsung and SK Hynix to proceed with selected advanced-memory upgrades in China under validated end-user rules, reporting requirements, and limits on the most advanced process steps. This is the most likely outcome because the U.S. has previously used waivers to avoid disrupting global memory supply while preserving leverage over China-facing capacity.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
Tickers
- SKHY+2.7%
- AMAT+1.1%
- MU-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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