Possible scenario
Beijing Extracts Concessions
20% Chance
China permits the Korean companies to upgrade their fabs but attaches commercial or industrial-policy conditions, including local-tool sourcing, data-center procurement commitments, or technology localization. This outcome balances Beijing's desire for stable supply with its long-term goal of strengthening domestic semiconductor capacity.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- SKHY+1.0%
- AMAT-0.5%
- MU-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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