Possible scenario
Contained Embassy Fallout
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is a narrow personnel and ethics matter inside the U.S. mission to Israel. The aide's retraction limits the immediate legal exposure, while the top secret clearance and cash-solicitation allegation force a formal internal review.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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