Possible scenario
Defense Loses Credibility
20% Chance
Markets focus on the speed of reserve depletion and challenge the central bank's preferred trading zone. The rupee breaks to new lows, foreign outflows accelerate, and Indian financial assets underperform despite further intervention.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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