Possible scenario
Smooth Capacity Ramp
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Nvidia, TSMC, Samsung, Amkor and other partners execute the 300% packaging expansion with manageable yield losses. The move materially eases the advanced-packaging constraint that limited AI accelerator shipments in 2024-2026.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.7%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+4.0%
- AMKR+3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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